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Recent Posts

May 11, 2005

An Uncanny Coincidence

So where do people get the inspiration for choosing lottery numbers? For some, revelaton is through fortune cookies.

BTW - The Mega Millions Lottery is changing its structure, reducing the odds of winning from 1:135,145,920 to 1:175,711,536, but increasing its minimum payout to $12 million. This was in interesting comment from a regular player.

Clinton Township used car dealer Bob Bartolomucci likes the bigger secondary prizes. "That's the only reason I play Mega Millions -- to win the second-place money," he said.

Interesting perspective. The expected value of the top prize is at least roughly 7.4¢. (The top prize increases each drawing as long as there are no winning combinations.) The expected value of the second and third prize is 6.6¢ and .87¢ respectively (yes, the expected value of the third prize is less than 1¢). Were Vegas to offer similar odds the casino owners would be thrown in jail for fraud.

Update: Here's an Excel spreadsheet used to determine expected values.

Download lotto.xls