Ten years ago this weekend, Pierre Omidyar, the grandson of a general in the former Shah of Iran’s Royal Iranian Army, sat at a computer on his kitchen table and developed what was to become eBay. Developed as an electronic marketplace for individuals living in the San Francisco Bay area, Omidyar turned a profit within six months, and was earning enough after just one year to quit his full-time job as a programmer. The rest, as they say, is history.
In September of 1998, eBay went public at a split-adjusted price of 75¢. eBay’s current share price (Friday, September 2) is just under $40, nearly 53 times greater than its initial public offering. Fifty six million active users from around the world exchanged roughly $34 billion worth of mostly used goods via 1.4 billion listings in 2004. Almost none of the surplus generated from these sales will be registered as GDP.
Omidyar's kitchen table experiment is fascinating for a number of reasons. First, Omidyar was completely surprised by eBay’s immediate success in that he didn’t expect this virtual market to extend much beyond the SF Bay area. Why would anyone send money from their home in, say, Washington, DC to a complete stranger in San Diego for a good he has never even seen? The success of eBay reinforces the fact that individuals living in market capitalist societies are far more trusting and trustworthy than conventional wisdom imagined. Second, eBay is a wonderfully transparent marketplace where analyzing the dynamism of the market process is possible. Third, it’s a venue for observing spontaneously emerging social norms of behavior. And lastly, is underscores the importance of information spreading as an enforcement mechanism for contracting and abidance to social norms.
Although I've been fascinated by eBay and have spent much time researching the firm and its users, I have also had doubts about its ability to continue. As users become more heterogeneous there is increasing potential for incidences of fraud to increase. And given the fact that cooperation is contingent on others' cooperating, the tipping point where widespread cooperation breaks down is relatively small. (Consider how easily lawlessness took over New Orleans.) This is of course just speculation and so far I have been proven wrong. I hope that this trend continues.
Here is a story with some interesting facts about eBay's first ten years.
Addendum: Edited the opening paragraph for clarity.